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Economic & event calendar Asia Wednesday, Jan 28, 2026. BoJ minutes. Australian inflation.

Posted on: Jan 28 2026

Well this is going to be a boring post given the big news is the President of the United States endorses trashing the US dollar and thereby ramping up inflation and interest rates. Clown show.

For the session ahead here in Asia-Pac we'll have Bank of Japan December meeting minutes.

The December BoJ meeting was an interesting one. The Bank raised its short term cash rate in January of 2025 and then followed up, finally, at this December meeting with another rate hikes. From the day:

  • Bank of Japan bookends the year
  • Yen slides further after BOJ press conference

On December 28 we got the Summary from that meeting:

  • BoJ signals more rate hikes ahead as policy seen far from neutral. JPY trades higher.

The TL;DR from the Summary:

  • BoJ says policy rate remains far below neutral despite recent hike

  • Several members favour steady further rate increases

  • Real interest rates seen staying deeply negative even at 0.75%

  • Yen weakness and bond yields partly blamed on overly low rates

  • Stronger wage-price dynamics reinforce tightening case

The minutes will give further details on the discussions and opinions.

Since then, of course, the biggest of big news is the 'rate check' intervention that has lopped off 600 or so points from USD/JPY.

-

Also on the agenda today is CPI data from Australia. The labour market data last week reignited chatter over a potential February (meeting is Feb. 2 & 3) rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia:

  • Australia jobs surge in December, lifting AUD and RBA rate hike expectations

The inflation data will provide more input on this.

Westpac analysts expect Australian inflation to continue moderating in the December quarter after a softer-than-expected November CPI outcome. The bank has revised down its December quarter forecasts to 0.5% q/q for headline CPI and 0.7% q/q for the trimmed mean, from 0.6% and 0.8% previously. For December alone, Westpac estimates CPI rose 0.9% m/m, lifting annual inflation to 3.7%. The December monthly trimmed mean is forecast at 0.1% m/m and 3.2% y/y, with the three-month pace slowing to 0.4%, reinforcing signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing.

Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia expect the December CPI to reinforce the case that underlying inflation pressures remain too strong for the RBA’s comfort. CBA forecasts headline CPI to rise 0.3% m/m in December, lifting annual inflation to 3.8%, while the trimmed mean is seen rising a firm 0.9% q/q and 3.3% y/y. That outcome would keep inflation well above levels consistent with the RBA’s target and supports CBA’s view that policy tightening begins in February 2026. For the Australian dollar, confirmation of persistent inflation and a credible near-term hike path would likely provide AUD support, particularly against low-yielding peers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
DE 40 forecast: the index tested support, but the uptrend remains intact

Posted on: Jan 27 2026

The DE 40 stock index has completed its correction and is ready to resume growth. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 59.6 in December
  • Market impact: the data creates a positive backdrop for the German equity market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 59.6 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50.0 and improving markedly from 45.8 previously. For equity markets, this is primarily a positive signal, as the ZEW index is a leading indicator of sentiment and reflects improving expectations among professional analysts regarding economic dynamics in the coming months. When expectations rise sharply and beat consensus estimates, investors typically interpret this as a lower recession risk and as justification for more optimistic estimates of future corporate earnings, particularly in cyclical sectors.

For the DE 40 index, the effect is typically more pronounced than for the broader market, as the index has a high weighting of global industrial and export-oriented companies whose performance is strongly linked to growth and order expectations. Improving ZEW sentiment increases the likelihood of a recovery in demand and stronger corporate results, which is generally supportive for industrials, automakers, chemicals, and capital goods producers, thereby underpinning the index as a whole.

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/zew-economic-sentiment-index

DE 40 technical analysis

For the DE 40 index, the key resistance level is formed at 25,460.0, while the support level is located around 24,460.0. Recently, the index has undergone a correction, with prices testing the support area. The nearest upside target could be 25,940.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,460.0 support level could send the index down to 23,905.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,460.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 25,940.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 26 January 2026

Summary

The strong upside surprise in the ZEW index is a positive factor for the German stock market and generally supports the DE 40 by improving growth and earnings expectations. However, the scale and durability of this effect may be limited by the reaction of the euro and bond yields, as well as by the need for confirmation from real macroeconomic data. The nearest upside target remains 25,940.0.

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Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.

investingLive Americas market news wrap: US dollar battered, silver hits $102

Posted on: Jan 24 2026

  • US January S&P Global flash services PMI 52.5 vs 52.8 expected
  • Trump administration weights total blockade of Cuba - report
  • Yen intervention talk sends USD/JPY sharply lower
  • Canada November retail sales +1.3% vs +1.2% expected

Markets:

  • WTI crude oil up $1.77 to $61.13
  • US 10-year yields down 1.6 bps to 4.235%
  • Bitcoin flat at $89K
  • S&P 500 flat
  • Gold up $44 to $4980, a fresh record
  • Silver hits $100 for the first time, continues to $102
  • JPY leads, USD lags

The newsflow was light but it certainly wasn't a quiet Friday in North American trading. There were some big moves in commodities and FX but very little to point to as catalysts. In the absence, rumours filled in the gaps.

The big one was that the Japanese Ministry of Finance did a rate check, essentially calling banks and asking for quotes. That's a trivial move but it's hugely symbolic as it's a potential precursor to intervention. The yen sold off earlier in the day and USD/JPY hit 159.22 following the Bank of Japan but it turned around in a big way, down to 155.86 last.

There was even some talk of intervention but doing that late Friday well after Tokyo has gone to bed is out of the ordinary. The move also didn't have the spike-style move typical of proper intervention.

Also critical is that the US dollar was broadly weaker and was solid continually in US hours. Again, there was no obvious catalyst for that, though cable did have some backing following hawkish comments, rising yields and the earlier PMIs. There was certainly a dollar selloff and it also coincided with a 3% jump in oil prices and fresh highs in precious metals.

That combination of events looks like a geopolitical trade. Late in the day there was talk of a full Cuban blockade but eyes are also on any potential action against Iran. Trump has frequently acted on the weekend and there is likely some sense that he could do it again.

In stock markets, megacap tech was strong while the Russell 2000 struggled. The S&P 500 was flat but the YTD leader -- Intel -- was smashed 17% lower following disappointing guidance.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Trading silver via SLV when volatility refuses to calm down

Posted on: Jan 20 2026

When volatility refuses to calm down, even “high IV” can become a trap. This article explains how different option structures can help navigate SLV when uncertainty keeps getting repriced.

Trading silver via SLV when volatility refuses to calm down

What SLV is, and why investors use it

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is designed to track the price of physical silver, less fees and expenses. Each share represents a fractional interest in silver bullion held by the trust, making SLV a simple and accessible way for investors to gain exposure to silver without dealing with storage, insurance, or physical delivery.

As a result, SLV is often used for several distinct purposes:

  • as a diversification tool alongside equities and bonds
  • as a hedge against currency debasement or inflationary surprises
  • as a tactical trading vehicle when silver enters strong momentum or stress-driven phases

Because SLV trades like a stock and has a liquid options market, it attracts both long-term investors and short-term traders. That combination is precisely what makes the options market in SLV so informative — and, at times, so challenging to navigate.

Market context: price action before strategy

SLV price action on weekly and daily timeframes highlights a sharp acceleration higher, with price extended far above long-term averages. Such moves often coincide with rising implied volatility and more complex options dynamics. Source: © Saxo

Why this matters now

Silver can be one of the most rewarding markets to trade and one of the most punishing, sometimes in the same week. When volatility is rising, the options market tends to do two things at once:

  • it charges more for protection (puts become expensive)
  • it can keep charging more if uncertainty persists (implied volatility rises further)

That combination is exactly why SLV can feel hard to trade right now, even for premium sellers. High implied volatility is not automatically an invitation to “sell premium”. It can also be a warning label.

This environment can be described as a volatility‑expansion breakdown: implied volatility is near the top of its recent range, the term structure can invert (near‑dated options priced richer than longer‑dated), and downside skew remains steep. In that regime, the goal is not to find the perfect forecast. It is to choose structures that still behave sensibly if volatility stays elevated or increases further.

The current regime: when volatility expands instead of fading

Three characteristics often seen when markets price stress rather than stability: elevated implied volatility, near-dated options priced richer than longer-dated ones, and expensive downside protection. Source: © Saxo

A quick primer: what rising implied volatility changes

Most options education starts with “sell premium when implied volatility is high.” That is directionally correct but incomplete.

When implied volatility is high and rising, two common problems appear:

  1. short premium positions can lose on mark-to-market even without a large price move. If options get repriced higher, short options can become more expensive to buy back.
  2. short gamma structures can get hit twice. A directional move hurts, and the repricing of volatility can worsen the drawdown.

This is why it is worth discussing strategies that are not simply “sell a put” or “sell an iron condor.” In a dislocating, headline-driven tape, structures that look like steady income on calm days can become structurally fragile.

The structure-first framework

Before looking at strategy examples, it helps to decide which of these four goals fits your intent:

  • I want defined risk (I accept smaller maximum gains for a capped worst case)
  • I want capital efficiency (I accept that some structures can have unpleasant tail risk)
  • I want to stay long exposure (but I want to reduce the cost of being long)
  • I want to benefit if volatility cools (without betting everything on a fast “vol crush”)

Strategy overview: matching structure to market conditions

Four option structures commonly used when implied volatility is elevated. Each structure addresses a different objective, from directional exposure with reduced time decay to defined-risk range trading. Source: © Saxo

Four educational strategy examples (based on current market conditions)

The examples below are used purely to illustrate how different option structures behave under elevated and rising implied volatility. Premiums and outcomes are indicative and will vary with the SLV price, implied volatility, and execution. Treat them as structure demonstrations rather than signals.

1) Zebra (zero extrinsic back ratio): directional exposure with limited time decay

What it is (mechanics)

  • long 2 in-the-money calls and short 1 at-the-money call. The strikes are selected so that the time value (extrinsic value) collected from the short at-the-money call largely offsets the time value paid for the two long in-the-money calls, reducing overall time decay and making the position behave more like owning the underlying than a typical long option trade.

Why it can fit this regime

  • it aims to behave like stock replacement, reducing theta exposure compared with a straightforward long call.

Key risks

  • it is still directional. If SLV falls, the structure can lose.
  • execution and strike selection matter. “Zebra” is a recipe, not a guarantee.

What to watch

  • price trend and key levels
  • whether implied volatility keeps rising (which can still affect marks, even if theta is reduced)

2) Put ratio spread (1x2): skew-financed downside hedge, with a tail-risk zone

What it is (mechanics)

  • long 1 at-the-money put and short 2 out-of-the-money puts. In simple terms, you buy downside protection close to the current price and help pay for it by selling two cheaper, further-out downside puts. This lowers the upfront cost, but creates a zone where losses can accelerate if SLV falls sharply below the short strikes.

Why it can fit this regime

  • when downside skew is elevated, the rich premium in out-of-the-money puts can help finance the at-the-money hedge.
  • it can work well if price drifts lower but does not crash.

Non-negotiable risk box

  • this structure can carry large downside risk if SLV falls materially below the short strike.
  • it is not a conservative “income” strategy.
  • it typically requires pre-defined management rules before entry (size, exit, adjustment).

What i would watch

  • whether skew remains elevated
  • whether price action becomes more disorderly (gap risk), which increases the probability of the tail-risk region being tested

3) Diagonal spread: time and volatility structure trade

What it is (mechanics)

  • long a longer-dated option (often in-the-money) and short a shorter-dated option (often out-of-the-money), typically on the same side (calls or puts). In plain terms, you own longer-term exposure that is less sensitive to short-term swings, while selling a near-term option to collect premium. The idea is to offset part of the cost of being long by selling time value where options are usually most expensive, while retaining longer-term directional exposure.

Why it can fit this regime

  • it aims to sell the expensive part of the curve (near-dated) while owning longer-dated exposure.
  • if near-term volatility cools faster than longer-dated volatility, the structure can benefit.

Key risks

  • management matters. You may need to roll the short leg.
  • upside can be capped during the short-leg period.
  • assignment risk exists on the short option.

What i would watch

  • term structure (is the front still priced unusually rich versus the back?)
  • whether the underlying trends fast enough to threaten the short strike

4) Broken wing butterfly: defined-risk “landing zone” trade

What it is (mechanics)

  • a three-strike structure that is designed to make the most money if SLV finishes near a specific price level. One side of the structure is intentionally made wider or “broken,” which lowers the cost of entry or caps the worst-case loss, at the expense of giving up some payoff symmetry.

Why it can fit this regime

  • it expresses a view that SLV may cool off and settle near a magnet zone, while keeping tail risk defined.

Key risks

  • timing risk: the move needs to happen by expiry.
  • path risk: sharp moves can still hurt on the way

Practical risk notes

  • Liquidity and spreads: multi-leg strategies can look great on paper and disappoint on execution.
  • Implied volatility can stay elevated: high IV is not a timer.
  • Assignment and margin: short options can be assigned early. Platform margining can reduce required cash, but discipline should remain conservative.
  • Position sizing: in rising-vol regimes, size is often the most underrated edge.

What to monitor going forward

Update only the numbers, not the logic:

  • current SLV spot price and the chosen expiries/strikes used in the examples
  • whether implied volatility is still rising, and whether the term structure remains unusually shaped
  • whether downside skew remains steep

If those flip, the strategy emphasis may flip too. For example: if volatility stops rising and term structure normalises, simpler defined-risk premium selling becomes easier to justify.

Short faq

  • Why not just sell puts if volatility is high? Because volatility can keep rising. A short put can lose from both a price decline and a volatility repricing, and the drawdown can be large before time decay helps.
  • Isn’t buying options a bad idea when implied volatility is high? Buying single options can be expensive in high IV, but spreads and structure choices can reduce that problem. The point is not “never buy options.” It is “know what you are paying for.”
  • What makes a strategy defined risk? You know the maximum loss at entry (ignoring execution slippage). Many multi-leg spreads do this by owning a protective option that caps the tail.
This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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US 30 index forecast: the index corrects after reaching new all-time high

Posted on: Jan 15 2026

The US 30 index is undergoing a correction, but the trend remains upward. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: US CPI increased to 2.7% in December 2025
  • Market impact: the data has a moderately positive impact on the equity market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The publication of the December CPI looks broadly neutral-to-positive for the equity market, primarily because of the component that is key for assessing monetary policy. The annual headline CPI rate remained at 2.7% and fully matched the consensus forecast and the previous reading, signalling stability in the disinflation trajectory without any unwelcome acceleration. At the same time, core CPI slowed relative to expectations to 2.6% y/y (versus a 2.7% forecast), which reduces concerns about persistent services inflation and strengthens the case for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy profile over the coming quarters.

For the US 30 index, the impact is typically moderate. Companies within the index are, on average, less sensitive to valuation changes driven by interest rate expectations than high-growth technology stocks, but they do depend on stable consumer demand and the absence of a sharp tightening in credit conditions. Lower-than-expected core inflation supports precisely this scenario: the economy does not appear overheated, and the regulator gains more room for softer policy decisions in the future.

US inflation rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index has entered an upward phase, with a key support level formed around 48,980.0. The 49,670.0 resistance level has been broken, and a new one has not yet been established. Current dynamics are characterised by a moderate correction, but the trend remains upward. The nearest upside target for the index is estimated at 50,080.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 48,980.0 support level could send the index down to 48,190.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 49,670.0, the index could climb to 50,080.0
US 30 technical analysis for 14 January 2026

Summary

The December CPI report is generally favourable for the US equity market, with a moderately positive effect most likely for the US 30 index, as core inflation came in below expectations and did not increase the risk of interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period. The only less favourable element of the report was the monthly increase in headline inflation of 0.3% versus expectations of 0.2%. However, this reading did not accelerate compared with the previous month, and a difference of one-tenth of a percentage point rarely changes the overall picture when annual indicators are stable, and core inflation is not rising. The nearest upside target could be the 50,080.0 level.

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