Analyst Weekly, May 4, 2026 Markets are still taking their cues mostly from earnings rather than macro headlines, with company results setting the tone for risk appetite. This week, that focus sharpens as fresh data from both sides of the Atlantic offers a clearer read on where growth is actually holding up and where it’s…

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The dollar has strengthened: Powell is stepping down as chair but will remain on the FOMC; Brent crude is above $120. Markets are anticipating 2–3 rate hikes in 2026 due to accelerating inflation.

The movement in Meta Platforms shares is being driven by two competing narratives.

Donald Trump told Fox News on Saturday that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will no longer travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran.

Trump said the trip was not worthwhile, claiming that the United States “holds all the cards” in the war and does not need to send a delegation on an 18-hour flight for unproductive discussions. He added that Iran is free to reach out to Washington at any time, stressing that his team would not make such long trips “to sit around talking about nothing.”

This is the report from Fox News:

President Trump just told me over the phone he has unilaterally cancelled Witkoff and Kushner’s trip to Pakistan to meet with the Iranians. "I've told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, 'Nope, you're not making an 18 hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you're not going to be making any more 18 hour flights to sit around talking about nothing'."

This all appeared to be breaking down on Friday but the market didn't care, or didn't understand what was happening, or I'm missing something else.

As far as I can see, we've reached a stalemate and the US is blocking Iranian ships and Iran is blocking everyone else's ships. Trump and his team have been touting all the tankers heading to the US to pick up oil but they're going to very quickly find out that prices will rise as supplies are drawn.

The next question is: What breaks the stalemate? Can there be negotiations or are more bombs coming?

We are still more than 24 hours until markets re-open but as it stands, this is bullish for oil and bearish for pretty much everything else.

Update: Now Trump himself is out with a similar statement.

In equally concerning news, Netanyahu is out with a statement saying he instructed the military to attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon forcefully.

South Korea’s Q1 GDP rose 1.7% q/q and 3.6% y/y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 1.6%), beating forecasts. Growth was driven by a 5.1% surge in exports led by semiconductors, highlighting strong AI-linked demand and reliance on external drivers.

Summary:

• Q1 GDP: +1.7% q/q (exp. +1.0%) → strongest since Q3 2020
• Y/Y GDP: +3.6% (exp. +2.7%, prev. +1.6%) → sharp acceleration
• Exports +5.1% → driven by semiconductors and AI demand
• Investment rebounds +4.8% after prior contraction
• Consumption modest +0.5%; government spending subdued

South Korea’s economy delivered a strong upside surprise in the first quarter of 2026, supported by robust semiconductor exports and a rebound in investment, highlighting the country’s exposure to the global artificial intelligence cycle.

Data from the Bank of Korea showed gross domestic product expanded 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in the January–March period, comfortably exceeding expectations for a 1.0% increase. The result marks the fastest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when the economy was rebounding from pandemic disruptions.

On an annual basis, growth accelerated sharply to 3.6%, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter and well above forecasts for 2.7%. The jump underscores a significant improvement in momentum, driven primarily by external demand.

Exports were the key engine, rising 5.1% over the quarter, led by shipments of IT components, particularly semiconductors linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Strong global demand for chips continues to underpin South Korea’s export sector, reinforcing its position as a critical node in the global technology supply chain.

Domestic demand showed more modest improvement. Private consumption increased 0.5%, suggesting a gradual recovery in household spending following earlier signs of stabilisation. However, government expenditure rose just 0.1%, continuing to weigh on the broader growth profile.

Investment provided a notable positive contribution, with facility investment rising 4.8% after contracting by 1.7% in the previous quarter. The rebound points to improving corporate confidence, particularly in export-oriented and technology-related sectors.

The composition of growth highlights an economy still heavily reliant on external drivers. While the export and investment surge is delivering strong headline growth, softer domestic demand and limited fiscal support indicate that the recovery remains uneven.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of this growth will depend on continued strength in semiconductor demand and the broader AI investment cycle, as well as whether improvements in external demand begin to translate into more durable domestic momentum.

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The data reinforces the global AI and semiconductor demand narrative, supporting Asian export equities and chip-related sectors. However, the reliance on external demand leaves the outlook sensitive to shifts in the global tech cycle, while soft domestic demand limits broader macro spillovers.