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Iran War maintains the boil. Market shrugs off Jensen Huang's latest hype.

Posted on: Mar 18 2026

Oil creeps back higher while Nvidia very much still stuck in range.

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Links:

  • On AI systems, here's an X Post from Chris Laub discussing a paper that describes why the current generation of AI hardware is poorly designed for the inference needs that are in highest demand and what the implications are - clearly plenty of urgency to streamline the output per watt with future systems designs, from how tasks are routed to the design of the hardware itself.

  • On the Iran War, here's one commenter making a reasonable case that the US has gotten itself in a mess with this Iran War, with few good options on what to do next save for just leaving. We are not endorsing this point of view, just pointing to it. And others think that the Israeli-US strategy is working as Iran's decades of preparation are being destroyed in a matter of days and weeks. Interestingly, Ilan (writer of the first post linked to above) specifically tries to dismantle the second link in another post.

 

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We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
Markets continue to price that Iran War ended yesterday.

Posted on: Mar 17 2026

Let's hope the market is correct that this winds down soon.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

USD in terminal decline or is the US set to use stablecoins to dollarize the global economy? Again, have a listen to a great conversation among some analysts who I admire (but don’t necessarily 100% endorse, though I also appreciate their humility), including Michael Every, Brent Johnson (of the US Dollar Milkshake Theory) Izabella Kaminska and Whitney Baker - the last is someone I was not familiar with before listening to this conversation and she certainly holds her own.

Does the US have China over a barrel with this Hormuz Strait naval escort idea? The very busy Shanaka Anslem Perara certainly thinks so: Very interesting analysis that suggests the US is aggressively playing the energy card to shore up its leverage against China as we wind toward a possible Trump-Xi summit, with the USD as reserve currency angle in play as well - depending on whether China joins to help re-establish traffic through the Hormuz Strait with naval escort.

About those thousands of Chinese fishing boats in geometric formations… Are they there to provide cover for possible shenanigans? Craig Tindale weighs in.

Markets too complacent as Iran War continues? You know my view - the FT’s Katie Martin thinks they are too complacent, too.

Total economic war, China style A Chinese company acquired a major antimony mine in Canada back in 2009, the country’s only of its kind and a significant source of global antimony supply, only to shutter it in 2023, a year before embargoing its own exports of antimony to the US which spiked the price some nine-fold. Antimony is useful for many industrial applications but it is a mission-critical element for military ones, like hardening surfaces and for ammunition. The Bureau substack with an extensive coverage of this interesting story (you can do a Free Trial for access).

Data centers, state of play in nuclear power, Oklo and more. This interview highly recommended by the legendary “chigrl”, Tracy Shuchart, who wrote a piece on her substack throwing shade on the impact of the big strategic reserve release.

Chart of the Day - JP Morgan / S&P 500 Triptych

On today’s podcast, I mentioned a financial services ETF and its relative weakness as a possible negative harbinger of the outlook for equities as financials are often seen as a leading sector due to the credit cycle. Below I substitute that ETF with the US’ largest commercial bank JP Morgan, showing at some major negative turning points in which the broad S&P 500 was booming to new highs when the financials and JP Morgan had already turned lower and were not confirming that high. No indicator is a sure thing, but this is a loud one that demands explanation before we are to believe that, even if we do get a normalization of flows of oil and gas through the Hormuz Strait and very soon, the market is just set to turn back higher again. The huge internal rotations across equities over the last several months are another sign that something deeper and profound is going on in this market.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
U.S. and China hold talks ahead of Trump–Xi talks. Talk, talk, talk .... rinse, repeat.

Posted on: Mar 16 2026

U.S. and Chinese officials held what 'sources' described as constructive talks in Paris to stabilise trade ties ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in Beijing.

Summary:

  • U.S. and Chinese officials held “candid and constructive” trade talks in Paris.

  • Discussions focused on stabilising the bilateral trade relationship.

  • China may consider increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

  • U.S. officials pushed for more Chinese imports of Boeing aircraft and energy products.

  • Rare earth supply challenges facing American firms were also discussed.

  • Proposals for managed trade and investment frameworks were explored.

  • Technical negotiations will continue ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in Beijing.

U.S. and Chinese officials have held what sources described as “candid and constructive” discussions in Paris aimed at stabilising their trade relationship ahead of an expected summit between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies.

According to people familiar with the talks, the meeting brought together senior economic officials from both sides to explore ways to reduce tensions and prepare proposals for consideration at a future meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Participants discussed measures designed to enhance stability in bilateral trade ties, including the possibility of increased Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. The proposals are being framed as potential confidence-building steps ahead of the leaders’ summit.

Officials also examined broader “managed trade” arrangements and investment frameworks that could help structure economic engagement between the two countries and address persistent trade imbalances.

During the discussions, U.S. officials raised the prospect of additional Chinese purchases across several sectors. Representatives from Washington reportedly encouraged Beijing to consider expanding imports of American products such as aircraft from Boeing, as well as coal, crude oil and natural gas.

The talks also addressed supply chain concerns affecting American businesses operating in China. One issue raised involved difficulties some U.S. companies have faced in securing supplies of rare earth elements, including yttrium, which are critical inputs in a wide range of advanced technologies and industrial applications.

The U.S. delegation included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who pressed Chinese counterparts on market access and trade balance issues.

Sources said both sides viewed the meeting as a constructive step in ongoing economic dialogue. However, officials acknowledged that many details still need to be worked out before any formal agreements are reached.

Technical-level discussions are expected to continue, with negotiators scheduled to meet again on Monday to further develop proposals and address outstanding issues.

The renewed engagement comes as Washington and Beijing attempt to stabilise their economic relationship amid broader geopolitical tensions and ongoing disputes over trade, technology and supply chains.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Market loses faith that an Iran solution is near

Posted on: Mar 14 2026

  • The Pentagon is moving additional warships to the Middle East
  • Trump says war will end when he feels it "in my bones"
  • US GDP for Q4 (2nd revision) 0.7% vs 1.4% estimate and prior
  • US PCE inflation +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected
  • JOLTs job openings for January 6.946M vs 6.700M estimate
  • University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) for March 55.5 versus 55.0 estimate
  • Canada February employment change -83.9K vs +10K expected
  • Federal Judge quashes subpoenas sent to Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell
  • Trump approval slips to 44% — markets should be watching the midterm risk
  • Bad news for housing. The average rate on 30 year fixed mortgage rises to 6.41%.
  • Barclays pushes back expectations for Fed rate cuts
  • The US and Cuba are talking

Markets:

  • WTI crude oil up $2.23 to $97.96
  • Gold down $53 to $5025
  • US 10-year yields flat at 4.28%
  • S&P 500 down 48 points to 6625
  • Bitcoin up 1.3%
  • USD leads, NZD lags

There was some sense of the war doves throwing in the towel today, at least in the short term. News that the US was sending over a Marine Expeditionary Unit that won't arrive for 12-16 days stretches the timeline to the end of the month and the full 4-5 weeks Trump touted, at minimum.

There is a sense that Iran isn't ready to end the war even if Trump wants to and that means there could be a battle to control the Strait of Hormuz or persistent naval escorts. If that's where this is headed that it's going to be a long spring and oil prices will stay high.

We saw that today with crude falling to $92 in Asian but rising all the way to $99.32 and finishing near the highs of the day. At the same time, US equities started with a 50 point gain that turned into a 45 point loss as the de-risking continues.

The FX market had been taking the fighting in stride but is increasingly shifting into dollars. That's pushed the euro to the lowest since July after a break of 1.1500 and a continued run lower.

The Australian dollar had been immune to the war trade up until now but it cracked on Friday and fell 83 pips to 0.6995.

The Canadian dollar stands to benefit from the higher oil prices but fresh worries about the domestic economy hit after a poor jobs report -- the second one in a row and the worst headline since 2022. So even with oil up $40 in a month, USD/CAD is flat at 1.3729.

Much of the final hours of trading was speculation about what could happen over the weekend. There is a huge range of possibilities from peace to sunken US ships and that will ensure another intense opening on Sunday night. Until then, have a nice weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
New Zealand Q4 terms of trade +3.7% q/q vs -0.7% expected

Posted on: Mar 04 2026

  • Prior was -2.1%
  • Import prices vs +0.8% expected
  • Prior import prices +0.5%
  • Export prices vs +0.5% expected
  • Prior export prices -1.6%

New Zealand's terms of trade measure the ratio of the country's export prices to its import prices, serving as a key indicator of the nation's purchasing power in international markets. This metric is particularly important for New Zealand given its heavy reliance on commodity exports, especially dairy, meat, forestry products, and horticultural goods.

Throughout 2025, New Zealand's terms of trade were shaped by several intersecting forces. Global dairy prices, which represent a significant share of export revenue, experienced fluctuations driven by shifting demand from key markets such as China and Southeast Asia. The performance of Fonterra's Global Dairy Trade auctions remained a closely watched barometer for the country's export outlook.

On the import side, energy costs played a substantial role. Oil price movements, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and broader geopolitical tensions, affected the cost of fuel and manufactured goods entering the country. A weaker New Zealand dollar relative to the US dollar also tended to push import costs higher, putting downward pressure on the terms of trade even when export volumes held steady.

Structural factors continued to matter as well. New Zealand's shift toward higher-value exports — including premium wine, technology services, and niche agricultural products — offered some insulation against raw commodity price swings. Meanwhile, supply chain adjustments following the disruptions of earlier years contributed to more stable, if elevated, import pricing.

Statistics New Zealand publishes official terms of trade data quarterly, and these releases are closely monitored by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as an input into monetary policy decisions, given their implications for national income and inflationary pressures.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.